Data & methodology.
Claims index: 2024 baseline = 100; excludes earthquake.
Historical baseline drawn from ICNZ published NZ natural hazard aggregate loss statistics.
Regional and peril breakdowns are modelled estimates calibrated to ICNZ loss totals and
NIWA Hazardscape event frequency data. Future projections use IPCC AR6 WG2 Ch11
(Australasia) climate multipliers for each SSP warming scenario.
All figures are indicative and for scenario planning only.
Limitations
- Data is synthetic, built from ICNZ and NIWA public figures. Not actuarially certified; for scenario planning only, not pricing or reserving.
- Regional breakdowns are modelled, not actual loss data. Sub-regional concentration risk isn't captured.
- SSP projections have wide uncertainty ranges not shown here. The gap between scenarios is about structural uncertainty, not precision around a single path.
- Earthquake is excluded throughout. Adding it would increase total exposure considerably, especially in Canterbury and Wellington.
- No allowance for portfolio growth or inflation. Assumes the 2024 insured base stays fixed to 2070, which it won't.